There are three reasons a Donald Trump election victory in November will quickly evolve into a Trump dictatorship. This dictatorship will last at least as long as Trump is alive.
Reason #1: Getting elected and staying in office keeps Trump out of jail.
Trump will not go on trial for stealing government documents, for trying to overturn the 2020 election result or the Georgia RICO case, that also revolves around overturning the 2020 election results, before the November presidential election. There is also a civil case brought by Capitol police officers and some Democratic congressmen seeking damages for Trump’s instigating the January 6, 2021, riot/insurrection. Last but not least, an Internal Revenue Service audit found Trump may owe $100 million (plus penalties and interest) for a dubious accounting maneuver on his Chicago building. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/11/us/trump-taxes-audit-chicago.html
Trump cannot be tried while he is in office. Logically, he will want to stay in office as long as possible. If Trump wins in November, he can appoint a friendly attorney general and stop the federal cases and the tax collection. If an obedient Republican wins the open Georgia gubernatorial election, Trump might get the new governor to fire Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, (who charged Trump in the RICO case), if she is still in office.
This is all good for Trump in the short term. The bad part is, the federal cases are only postponed. It is a federal crime to destroy evidence. Also, the statute of limitations applies from the date of the offense until the defendant is charged. A four-year delay while Trump is president will not stop these cases from moving forward again once he leaves office.
There is a mountain of evidence against Trump in his three remaining criminal cases. If convicted, Trump would go to jail for a very long time.
Trump is a fool, but even he is not stupid enough to obey the Constitution and leave office after the 2028 election. If he were to leave after a Democrat won the 2028 election and appointed an aggressive attorney general, a former President Trump would be facing the same charges he is trying to avoid now. The question isn’t if a President Trump will take dictatorial powers, the question is when.
Reason #2: A president cannot dole out retribution. A dictator can.
Trump continually talks about retribution against all the people that wronged him in denying his victory in the 2020 election. Trump’s problem is, there is no evidence of election fraud, because there was no election fraud. Trump lost in 2020 because he is a vile excuse for a human being and his disastrous presidency was fresh in voters’ minds.
Trump promises a dictatorship on Day 1 of his next presidency. We should pay attention to what he’s saying.
Trump can have a dictatorship on Day 1 of his administration and order his attorney general to jail Joe Biden and all the judges in the 61 election court cases Trump lost. However, on Day 2 of Trump’s presidency, all these people are out of jail. Again, there is no evidence of fraud or illegal activity associated with Trump’s 2020 election loss. This is a difficult concept for Trump and Republicans to grasp, but in a Constitutional judicial system, one needs evidence to arrest, try and convict someone. On the other hand, dictators don’t need evidence to jail someone for life.
Once a president crosses the line using our justice system to seek retribution against innocent people, there is no turning back. Trump will need to declare martial law and take the dictatorial powers he has always wanted and keep them for the rest of his life.
Reason #3: Republicans demand a return on their investment in Trump to get a whiter America.
Trump was a miserably ineffective president. https://www.frugalron.com/the-trump-disaster/
A president Trump will fail again. The only way Republicans can get their right wing agenda passed is if Trump has dictatorial power. A few of Trump’s biggest failures as president follow This list is no where near complete in listing Trump’s failures.
- Trump promised Mexico would pay for building a wall on the US border.
- It didn’t happen.
- Trump then promised he would build a wall.
- It didn’t happen.
- Trump said he would stop illegal immigration.
- It didn’t happen. The number of illegal immigrants entering the country is estimated using a proxy measure, the number of arrests at the border. Arrests plummeted during the COVID pandemic, while Trump was president. But, arrests skyrocketed In Trump’s last two months in office to 71,141 and 75,316. In comparison, the highest number of monthly apprehensions in Barack Obama’s term was 67,342. Trump did not stop illegal immigration. Quite to the contrary, illegal immigration increased during Trump’s time as president.
- Trump promised he would enact the “penny plan” to cut federal spending one percent annually. He stated he was the only one who could do this.
- It didn’t happen. Presidents Clinton and Obama averaged three percent annual spending increases during their terms. Trump averaged six percent increases until his last year when he set records for the largest percent increase in spending since World War II.
- Trump promised he would balance the federal budget “fairly quickly” and wipe out our national debt in eight years. He stated he was the only one who could do this.
- It didn’t happen. Trump increased deficit spending every year he was in office and ended his term with the biggest deficit in history.
- Trump promised he would end our international trade deficit. He stated he was the only one who could do this.
- It didn’t happen. Our trade deficit increased every year Trump was in office.
- Trump promised to end Obamacare and replace it with something much better.
- It didn’t happen. He failed on both counts.
- Trump promised to create record numbers of jobs. He stated he was the only one who could do this.
- It didn’t happen. In Trump’s first three years in office, 23 percent fewer jobs were created than in the last three years of Obama’s presidency. Trump’s presidency ended with him being the only president since the 1930’s when these records were first kept, that had fewer jobs at the end of his presidency than when he came into office. Trump also increased the unemployment rate during his term by 34 percent.
- Trump said he would grow the economy by 4 percent per year.
- It didn’t happen. The economy grew 2.5 percent annually in Trump’s first three years in office. By the end of his term, he had the lowest annual growth rate of any president since these records were first recorded in the 1930’s.
- Trump said he could get North Korea to stop their nuclear and missile programs.
- It didn’t happen.
- Trump said he signed more legislation than any other president.
- Trump lied. He signed fewer pieces of legislation than any other president in US history. This, despite Republicans controlling both the House and Senate in Trump’s first two years in office. His biggest accomplishment was signing a huge tax cut for corporations and the rich that created out-of-control deficits.
- Trump said he would “Make America Great Again!”
- Trump failed. By any measure, the US was far better off before Trump was president than at the end of his term. COVID was the defining challenge of Trump’s presidency and he failed miserably. The US desperately needed real leadership. Instead, Trump fell into his typical pattern of ignoring experts and instead listened to medical outliers and his “gut” to make decisions. As deaths piled up, rather than take responsibility and change course, he tried to shift blame to the experts he ignored. He also blamed the mainstream media that reported the number of deaths and everyone from China to Democrats for his failures. At the end of Trump’s term, the US had one of the world’s highest per capita COVID death rates and more COVID deaths than any other country.
Why Trump failed.
In true Trumpian fashion, Trump blames everyone around him for his failures. More relevant reasons are his low intelligence and inability to focus. For example:
- Trump’s first defense secretary, former General James Mattis said Trump, “has the understanding of a fifth or sixth grader.”
- Dr. Anthony Fauci stated, “Donald Trump’s attention span is like a minus number.” These were not the only advisors making these observations.
An even bigger problem, except for himself, Trump doesn’t stand for anything. His position on issues changes with the wind. A few examples…
- Four years ago, Trump was proud to sign the First Step Act. This bill allowed over 2,600 imprisoned former crack cocaine sellers to petition for early release from prison. Now, Trump says drug dealers should be executed.
- Two years ago, Trump said, “Abortion is MURDER!” Now, it is just fine in any state that allows abortion.
- A few months ago, Trump fumed, “The flood of illegal immigrants is poisoning the blood of our country”. While appearing to be following orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump had his minions in Congress kill the bill, that Republicans led negotiations on, that would have stopped the flood.
Trump is too lazy to put in the effort to pass legislation that doesn’t directly impact him. However, Republicans want their agenda passed now. These are some of the reasons for Republican impatience…
- America is becoming more accepting of a multi-cultural society.
- Every day, the US has a higher percentage of non-white citizens.
- LGBTQ people are gaining acceptance as real people throughout the US.
- Women are gaining more power and successfully fighting big government’s takeover of their futures and reproductive rights.
- Black people are fighting the systemic racism they’ve dealt with for generations. We now have historically high numbers of Black judges and US attorneys (who decide which federal cases are prosecuted). In addition, Black scholars are getting real history in textbooks.
- Horror of horrors, even trans people are gaining acceptance.
- Republicans also recognize fewer and fewer people are identifying as Christian.
Trump is Republicans’ last great white hope for winning a presidential election and righting all these wrongs. Republicans learned Trump is incapable of accomplishing change as a president. Their only hope is for Dictator Trump being much more effective. Republicans will support whatever Trump does to consolidate power and give the racists, bigots, Islamophobes, anti-semites, misogynists and sexists that make up the Republican Party what they want.
How we got here
It is a given that the Republicans identified above will vote for Trump. If the Democrats nominated a risen Jesus Christ, Trump would still get the aforementioned groups’ votes.
The reason Donald Trump is leading in polls is because of Joe Biden. Democrats wanted to make Trump the focus of the 2024 race. Voters didn’t buy that and instead are making Biden the focus.
JoeBiden (and Donald Trump) are too old to be running for president. Voters watched Biden age dramatically over the last four years. Biden’s age, his gait and his frequently blank expressions are tangible reasons he is running behind in most polls. The intangible reason is, voters simply don’t like Joe Biden. Biden ran for president in 1988 and 2008 and lost both times. In 2020, he needed South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn to save his candidacy. Biden could easily win reelection to his Delaware Senate seat, but when he stepped out onto the national stage, he can’t connect with voters.
When a candidate like Biden is not liked, people ignore a booming economy where wages are outpacing inflation and where we can now go out to a restaurant without a mask on and feel safe from COVID. The flip side of not being liked is Biden is blamed for things he has no control over, like Hamas’s attack on Israel, Israel’s response and college protests.
For some reason, candidates as diverse as Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump can make all kinds of blunders yet maintain their popularity. Who would possibly have believed ten years ago that a presidential candidate would be convicted unanimously by a jury of sexual battery, which the presiding judge described “as rape by any definition of the word” and still be leading in the polls?
The real problem here starts and finishes with Biden. Biden recognizes the seriousness of Trump’s threat to democracy and the rule of law. Biden also saw his standing in polls months ago. If he had announced he wasn’t running, Democrats would have one of any number of young, dynamic and aggressive candidates walking all over Trump.
If intelligent, good people don’t vote for Biden in November because he isn’t “likable” or they don’t support some of his policies, Donald Trump wins and we will lose our democracy. Simple as that.
The clear and present danger…
Trump values himself over anything else, obviously including the Constitution, the Bill of rights and our democracy. Trump has continually talked about terminating the Constitution if he wins the upcoming election. He routinely says he will mobilize the National Guard to enforce his actions. We need to take him at his word. Well before the 2028 election, a President Trump will have declared martial law to deal with the invasion at the border or some other manufactured crisis.
If you think this is far fetched and there are Constitutional safeguards, wake up. Congressional Republicans ignored facts and rallied around him in his first two impeachment trials. Standing up to Trump and for the Constitution would be political (and maybe literal) suicide for any Republican. Republicans will have enough seats in the House and the Senate to allow Trump to do whatever he wants.
Don’t count on the Supreme Court to save our democracy from Trump. The Supreme Court, has a 6-3 right wing majority. Their success in keeping Trump’s election subversion trial from happening before the election, based on Trump’s total presidential immunity claim, makes a mockery of “blind justice” on the Supreme Court.
Where do we go from here?
Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. said, “The US is sleepwalking into a dictatorship, if Trump wins in 2024.” I couldn’t agree more.
Many people don’t recognize the threat because they think Trump is a harmless, blowhard. Too many voters believe, “Trump says all kinds of crazy things, but he just blows a lot of smoke. We lasted through one Trump Administration. We can do it again.”
Unfortunately, the Trump of 2024 is different than the Trump of 2016. The 2024 Trump is facing prison, perhaps for the rest of his life. Trump can’t blame himself for the legal problems he created, so we hear hate filled tirades blaming everyone connected to his cases. He is a dictator in waiting.The “retribution” he promises can only be delivered by a dictator.
At the same time, Republican frustration with democracy is reaching a boiling point. A Republican Supreme Court reversed Roe versus Wade. Yet, Republicans underestimated the power of the ballot as voters in some Republican states made abortion legal. Petitions with far more signatures than needed will put abortion on the ballot in more Republican states this year. Worse, the House’s Republican majority showed Republicans can’t get their crazy, right wing policies enacted in a democracy.
The bottom line…
Otto von Bismarck, a German 19th Century politician, said, “There is a special Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, small children and the United States of America.” We are going to need that special Providence.
