The Donald Trump presidency rests on three pillars: Stupidity, Lies and Racism. Like being in a never ending pinball machine, with Trump in office, the United States ricochets from one disaster to the next.
Stupid is as stupid does
Sometimes we just need to recognize the obvious. If we see a bird that looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, flies like a duck and walks like a duck, then it obviously is a duck. Likewise, if someone constantly says and does stupid things, then that person is obviously stupid. Following this logic, Donald Trump is stupid. Worse, he surrounds himself with stupid. Even worse, after ten years of electing Tea Party stupid, we have Congressional stupid to support presidential stupid.
Many people claim that Trump is unpredictable. These people have not paid attention to his modus operandi. Simply ask yourself, what is the stupidest thing anyone could do under a given set of circumstances and you can predict Trump’s actions.
Some examples
With polar ice caps melting at far faster rates than predicted, ocean levels rising and global warming contributing to unprecedented flooding, what is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could do in setting out the country’s future energy policy? Obviously, the answer would be to promote more coal-burning power plants and require power plants using cleaner, safer (and cheaper) energy to subsidize the more expensive coal powered plants.
Ask yourself, “What is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could do before negotiating nuclear disarmament with North Korea?” The answer of course is to break the nuclear accord signed with Iran after the Iranians destroyed their nukes, over 500 centrifuges that would have allowed them to quickly replace the destroyed nuclear bombs and followed the agreement explicitly.
What is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could possibly do if he wanted to end the FBI investigation of his presidential campaign’s collusion with Russians? That’s simple, go on national television and do an interview with Lester Holt and brag that the real reason you just fired the FBI director was that he wouldn’t end the Russian investigation.
What is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could possibly do if he wanted to keep an international trade embargo and other sanctions on North Korea to force them to dismantle their nuclear weapons? The answer is to hold a summit with the North Korean leader and walk out with absolutely no concrete plan for nuclear disarmament. Then, proclaim to the world that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat. Forget about political oppression, slave labor camps and murdering his own uncle, Kim Jong Un, “loves his people”.
What is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could possibly do when negotiating trade issues with the Canadian prime minister? Lie and claim the US has a trade deficit with Canada and then claim the Canadians burned down the White House during the War of 1812. Then, go to a Republican fund raiser and brag about lying to the Canadian prime minister. Then, after the G-7 Meeting in Montreal, complain that Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister didn’t treat you with enough respect. By the way, it was the British that burned down the White House during the War of 1812.
What are the STUPIDEST things Trump could possibly do if he wanted to keep fuel prices low in the US? The answer is to end the nuclear agreement with Iran, end trade with them, and for good measure, send a letter to heads of state of oil producing Gulf nations telling them they wouldn’t last a week without US help.
What is the STUPIDEST possible thing Trump could do if he wanted to keep up the facade that he is “draining the swamp” of special interests and lobbyists setting our country’s agenda? Send his political appointees to the World Health Organization meeting and try to scuttle the science backed research recommendations to encourage mother’s to feed their babies breast milk. The US delegation, supporting the milk formula industry, threatened Ecuador, the country sponsoring the breast milk resolution, with losing military and financial aid if they went through with introducing the legislation. Russia saved the day by being the resolution’s sponsor. Since Russia has the videotapes and photos of Trump’s romp with Russian prostitutes after the 2013 Miss Universe Pageant, the US delegation obviously couldn’t threaten them. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/health/world-health-breastfeeding-ecuador-trump.htm
What is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could possibly say about Russian interference in the 2016 election that has been confirmed by the CIA, NSA, FBI, House Intelligence Committee and the Senate Intelligence Committee? “I asked him again, “Trump said after what he described as several brief, informal chats with Putin in Danang, Vietnam, where they were attending a regional conference. “You can only ask so many times . . . He said he absolutely did not meddle in our election. He did not do what they are saying he did. I really believe that when he tells me that, he means it . . . I think he’s very insulted, if you want to know the truth.”
In light of the fact that multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position, what is the STUPIDEST thing Trump could say? “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”
What is the STUPIDEST possible thing Trump could do concerning all his legal troubles? Hire Rudy Giuliani as his lead lawyer.
This list is nowhere near inclusive of Trump’s stupid statements and actions. He continues to add more everyday. Frugal Ron apologizes if he missed your favorite example of Trump’s idiotism.
Mystery solved
Frugal Ron has been trying for two years to understand how someone who surrounds himself with loyalists of limited intellect and who doesn’t understand how to use data or research could possibly be a billionaire. A recent article https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trump-lied-to-me-about-his-wealth-to-get-onto-the-forbes-400-here-are-the-tapes/2018/04/20/ac762b08-4287-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8dd3a16e8d6b by Johnathon Greenberg, who started the original Forbes magazine lists of the world’s wealthiest people, explained the mystery. Trump lied.
As Greenberg writes, “Eventually, nearly every one of Trump’s pronouncements about his wealth unraveled.”
Greenberg was able to cut through many of Trump’s lies about his wealth, but couldn’t fathom the full extent of his lies. “But Trump was so competent in conning me that, until 35 years later, I did not know I’d been conned. Instead, I have gone through my career in national media with a misinformed sense of satisfaction that, as a perceptive young journalist, I called Trump on his lies and gave Forbes readers who used the Rich List as a barometer of private wealth a more accurate picture of his finances than the one he was selling. The joke was on me — and everyone else. Trump’s fabrications provided the basis for a vastly inflated wealth assessment for the Forbes 400 that would give him cachet for decades as a triumphant businessman.”
You read it here first. If Trump’s tax returns are ever leaked, my prediction is that we will find the reason he has been hiding them are that he has huge interest payments to some sleazy Russian and/or Ukrainian oligarchs. If we divide these interest payments by even loan shark interest rates, my further prediction is that Donald Trump is much closer to being broke than to being a multi-billionaire.
Moving on, the cost of stupid
Donald Trump takes a great deal of credit for the low unemployment rate the US currently enjoys, However, Figure 1 shows unemployment rates on the same trajectory they have been on since 2010 and the end of the Obama Administration in January 2017.
Figure 1
Also, looking at the data in Figure 1 from the early part of the George W. Bush presidency, starting in 2001, it is obvious that unemployment dropped during the false prosperity from 2003 to 2007. This was the result of Bush’s tax cuts for the rich and out of control government spending increases. Obviously, the Piper was paid in 2008 with the worst recession since the Great Depression.
As history repeats itself, we clearly see trends emanating from Trump’s out of control spending increases and 2018 tax giveaway to the rich in the federal budget deficit. When Barack Obama left office, Federal Government Net Savings were -$714.0 billion. After just five quarters of Donald Trump’s borrow and spend policies, the Federal Government Net Savings are -$910.0 billion. This is the biggest deficit in our country’s history in a non-recession year. Remember this huge deficit is only after six months of Trump’s tax give away to the rich. Expect the federal spending deficit to go higher as the numbers reflect a full year of Trump’s tax giveaway and ultra-liberal spending increases.
In earlier columns, Frugal Ron has predicted the current Republican effort to buy prosperity will result in another crash and burn for our economy. The question isn’t if this will happen , but when.
Predicting the “when” is very difficult. The Ronald Reagan and George Bush recessions happened relatively shortly after debt went out of control due to their exorbitant spending and ridiculous tax cuts. George W. Bush got four years of fake prosperity, but his recession was much more severe than his predecessor’s.
Trump’s incredibly stupid trade war
Our government spending deficit is entwined with our country’s trade balance. This is where Trump’s stupidity affects all of us.
Trump continually blames other countries and “unfair trade agreements” for our trade deficits. This is just plain stupid, stupid, stupid.
A rule of economics that Trump hasn’t come to terms with is that a country’s Current Account = Capital Account. In other words, a country’s net savings always equals that country’s Merchandise & Trade Balance.
While Trump wastes time foolishly proclaiming our trade deficits are due to unfair trade agreements, our trade deficit is exploding. This is mostly fueled by Trump’s huge government spending deficit that impacts our country’s net savings. When Obama left office, our Merchandise & Trade Balance was -$487.4 billion. Five quarters later, the trade deficit is now -$569.0 billion, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2008 when George W. Bush left office. Why has the trade deficit grown? From the figures above, our annual federal budget deficit has grown by $196 billion since the end of the Obama presidency. This has negatively affected our country’s Capital Account (net savings). As our federal budget deficit continues to grow, one of two things will happen. Either the trade deficit will continue to explode or the country will slide into a recession.
It gets worse…
While Trump’s policies make our products less competitive internationally and he exports even more jobs, that isn’t the worst of it. Trump is a big government liberal who believes government needs to pick the winners and losers in our economy. When he puts tariffs on steel products coming into the country, that doesn’t affect our overall trade balance. All else staying the same, we continue a -$569 trade deficit.
What does happen is that we will import less steel and make domestic steel providers richer because of the drop in competition. They didn’t become richer because they improved their productivity or developed more creative products. They became richer because the government made them that way. On the other hand, domestic users of steel, such as auto manufacturers, have to compete with products made in other countries with steel that isn’t charged a tariff. These companies are the losers from the government imposed tariffs.
If they market internationally and the countries they export to happen to put countervailing tariffs on their products to reciprocate for the tariffs the US enacted, these companies are hit with a double whammy. This is why Harley Davidson will move manufacturing out of the US for the motorcycles they sell internationally.
Avoid idiots in glass houses
Trump continually talks about other country’s unfair trade practices. For example, Canada’s milk quota system has been a disaster for Canada’s dairy producers and consumers. It survives only because Canada negotiated World Trade Organization restrictions on dairy imports. The program is a perfect example of how a powerful lobby is able to use trade restrictions to reward a few at the expense of many.
However, because of Canada’s relatively small population and because of the quota system, their per capita dairy consumption is low, Canada’s dairy import restrictions have a small impact on world milk prices.
Contrast this with the US sugar program that keeps sugar prices in the world’s largest market roughly three times international prices and all but locks out imports. A number of year’s ago some creative importers tried to circumvent the US quotas by importing tea that contained 85% sugar and 15% tea and then separating it in the US. It worked for awhile.
Another dandy example of a market distorting policy benefitting the few and costing the many is a part of the NAFTA Agreement that requires all goods produced in Mexico to be transported into the US on a US owned truck. No matter how new and safe a Mexican semi is and how experienced the driver is, they can’t deliver goods into the US. At considerable cost and loss of efficiency, they have to be off loaded onto a US truck.
While the Canadian dairy program has a pin prick impact on international dairy prices, the US’s Price Loss Coverage Program (PLC) is like a sledge-hammer on other countries’ commodity prices during years of abundant supplies. If the market average price for corn drops to $2.50 a bushel, US producers get a government check for the difference between the Reference Price of $3.40 per bushel and the $2.50 market price times all the corn they produce. Next year, US producers make planting decisions based on a $3.40 minimum price while the rest of the world ‘s farmers hope the price doesn’t go below $2.50.
Unfortunately, the last attempt at an international agreement to eliminate more trade barriers broke down because then President George W. Bush refused to negotiate eliminating market distorting US agricultural programs.
While almost all countries have trade distorting practices, the trade agreements Trump vilifies eliminated thousands of them. Furthermore, only a complete idiot would criticize other countries’ trade distorting practices considering the indefensible ones we have.
We’re trying to accomplish what?
It is difficult to understand what Trump is trying to accomplish with his trade wars. He claims China and the European Union have unacceptably high trade surpluses with the US. He wants to renegotiate trade agreements,. However, our trade deficit is due to our own national savings deficit. No country can sign a trade agreement with us specifying a certain level of trade surplus or deficit because even we can’t control our own savings deficit. The world’s worst negotiator doesn’t leave his adversaries any viable options.
Some days Trump and his advisors claim they want to stop China from stealing our trade secrets. Obviously, none of these people have ever applied for a US patent. Before a patent is granted, all applications go through a review process. During this period, all formulas, drawings and whatever makes the product unique are released to the public. If anyone can prove they developed and marketed a like product in the past, they can stop the patent.
The more important point is that we make the product’s trade secrets open to the public. This is why whenever a US patent application reaches the review stage, the applicant will apply for patents in every country they hope to market the product. Someone else can review the patent, copy it and market it in any country the original developer fails to patent it in. Also in the US, a developer can copy a patent, make some changes and if the second developer can prove the new product is a “significant improvement”, apply for their own US patent and market their new product here.
Trade and inflation
A result of bad government is inflation. During Trump’s disastrous presidency, signs of inflation are everywhere. Average US regular unleaded gas prices, (according to the American Automobile Association) are $2.87 per gallon. A year ago they were $2.26. JP Morgan announces the June 14, 2018 Prime Interest Rate is 5.00 percent. When Obama left office, it was 3.75 percent. General Motors announced that due to Trump’s tariffs, new car prices would rise thousands of dollars.
The list goes on and on. Because of inflation, people will make inefficient buying decisions. If someone thinks they need a new car within a couple years, they will buy it now instead, given the expectation that the automobile will be more expensive when they need it.
Inflation erodes the value of savings that frugal people accumulated over their lifetimes. It also makes the $1.3 trillion of US treasury bond debt that China owns less valuable since it will be paid off with inflated dollars. The Chinese have been very explicit to past US administrations that they will not let this happen.
Pay attention to what might happen if the Chinese finally lose patience with Trump. If they decide to quit buying more treasury bills and help finance his $trillion deficits, this could have a major impact on interest rates. If they decide to start cashing in their T-bills, and other countries follow suit, this could set off a financial meltdown.
The lies
The second pillar of Trump’s presidency are his lies. On May 31, 2018 the Washington Post reported its latest tally of Donald Trump’s false and misleading statements since taking office was at 3,251. That is averaging more than 6.5 lies per day.
Unfortunately, the pace of lies is picking up. In Trump’s first 100 days in office, he averaged a mere 4.9 lies per day. However, in May 2018, he averaged eight false claims per day, including a then record 35 in one speech in Nashville, Tennessee on May 29. The Washington Post’s Fact Checker reviewed all the claims Trump made in his Montana rally last week and found that 76 percent were false or suspect. Trump is a prolific liar, not a good liar. If he was a good liar, he wouldn’t gotten caught 3,251 times.
The bottom line is that Donald Trump is a perpetual liar that can’t be trusted. Everything he says must be assumed to be a lie.
Immigration, first some logic
The US has an aging population and a declining birth rate. This is a recipe for economic disaster. The solution is to welcome all the immigrants we can conceivably get, regardless of their skin color, sexual orientation or religion.
In 1970, there were about 3.1 taxpayers for every Social Security recipient. That is now down to 2.9 taxpayers to every recipient. By 2035, the ratio is expected to be around 2.1 taxpayers to every recipient. According to a Social Security Administration study, between 2011 and 2032, it is estimated the number of people eligible for old age benefits will increase by 65 percent while the number of people paying Social Security taxes will increase by 18 percent.
If you want a real world example of what can happen with an aging and declining population, Japan is ahead of us with an even more aging population and a longer history of declining birth rates. Japan’s economy is in a long-term stagnation — the country’s GDP has been among the G7’s lowest over the past 20 years, coming second only to Italy. We don’t want to follow the Japanese model.
We don’t have an immigration problem in this country, we have a race problem.
Racism
While the Trump presidency stands on the three pillars of stupidity, lies and racism, it is truly racism that drives Trump and his supporters. As long as Trump works to make America white (and Christian) again, his supporters don’t care about his stupidity, how many lies he tells or how immoral he is.
To Trump and his rabid supporters, there was absolutely nothing wrong with separating parents from their children at the border. Locking the traumatized children in cages, hauling them to all corners of the country and not telling their parents where they were was perfectly acceptable.
All of these migrants have brown skin. For Trump and his supporters, it isn’t like they are real people that have feelings for their children like white people would have.
Trump made the point himself at the meeting where he made his “shit hole countries” remark. In the same meeting he asked why we couldn’t get more people from countries like Norway. I would bet every nickel I have that if a boat load of blond haired, blue eyed illegal immigrants from Norway tried to get into the US, those children wouldn’t have been torn away from their parents.
Trump categorizes families fleeing violence or simply wanting a better life in the US as drug dealers, murderers, rapists and animals. He has the audacity to claim, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”
Never to let the truth interfere with a good lie, Trump has no proof the Mexican government is sending us anybody. The people that are immigrating are making their own decisions based on the same conditions generations of immigrants before them made. They want a better life.
Most people judge Trump’s immorality based on his three unsuccessful marriages, his affairs with playmates, porn stars and Russian prostitutes and the 19 women that have accused him of sexual assault. However, bad as these are, they pale in comparison to the immorality he showed in tearing families apart.
While reasonable people can disagree on tax and spending policies and still be friends, basic humanity is different. I find it extremely difficult to have any respect for anyone that supports Trump’s separating children from their parents and locking the children in cages. Shame on the United States and all of us for allowing this to happen.
The white nigger
Imagine a racist teaching their child, “Now Junior, you must hate all black people because they constantly lie and have no morals . They are stupid and are constantly in trouble with the law. Worse, they won’t take responsibility, they always claim they didn’t do anything wrong and the cops are prejudiced against them. And, they live off hard-working tax payers like us with all sorts of scams.”
And Junior says, “But Mommy, that’s Donald Trump!”
These are hard times for racists. Having to defend a low life liar like Donald Trump while condemning a successful, honest, articulate, faithfully married class act like Barack Obama is not easy.
It is interesting watching Trump’s apologists and supporters. they don’t bother defending Trump’s stupidity, lies, immorality or racism. They attempt to make the point that President Barack Obama was worse. One banner on social media proclaimed “OBAMA LIED 19 TIMES ABOUT BEING ABLE TO KEEP YOUR OWN DOCTOR!”
Personally, I don’t know anyone that had to switch doctors because of Obamacare, but this is beside the point. If we start the week on Sunday morning, 19 lies won’t even get Trump through Tuesday.
And then there is the big scandal right around the corner that is going to bring Obama down. Turns out Trump’s claim that Obama had Trump Tower’s phones bugged was just another Trump lie. Some of Trump’s aides were making suspicious contacts with Russians and the FBI got a court order to tap their personal cell phones. The other Trump lie about Obama planting a spy in the Trump campaign was equally scurrilous. When other Trump campaign workers were also making suspicious contacts with Russia, the FBI had one of their long time informants make contact with the Trump campaign employees to figure out what they were up to. Thanks to the House Republicans for blowing the informant’s cover.
It is impossible for Trump’s racist followers to accept that Obama kept from being investigated the good old-fashioned way. He didn’t break any laws.
If the truth doesn’t work, the Trump loyalist just out right lie. Since most of these folks claim they are good God-fearing Christians, we can surmise that the Commandment about bearing false witness doesn’t apply when you are lying about a black guy.
My favorite though is that Barack Obama is a Communist. Just a few points:
When Obama’s predecessor George W. Bush took office, the US had a budget surplus of $152 billion. When Bush left office, the budget had an annual deficit of $781 billion. When Obama left office, the deficit was down slightly to $738 billion. Which one is the Communist destroying our country?
When Bush assumed the presidency, thee US Merchandise and Trade Balance was -$404 billion. When Bush left office, it was $686 billion. When Obama left office the Merchandise and Trade Balance was down to -$461 billion. Which one is the Communist destroying our country?
During Bush’s term in office, the S&P 500 Stock Index dropped 35 percent. During Obama’s term, it went up 163 percent. Which one is the Communist destroying our country?
During Bush’s term in office, the unemployment rate went up 47 percent. During Obama’s term, it went down 55 percent. Which one is the Communist destroying our country?
During Bush’s presidency, annual federal government spending went up 74 percent. During Obama’s term, it went up only 24 percent. Which one is the Communist destroying our country?
Both Bush and Obama kept inflation at record low rates during their two terms in office.
And last but not least, during Bush’s term, per capita annual health care costs rose 63 percent. During Obama’s term, these costs went up 31 percent. In addition, 27 million previously uninsured people had health insurance at the end of Obama’s term. Oh, but for the good old days when we had a Communist out to destroy our country as president!
Wrapping up…
Our leadership void in this county is deeper than just the presidency. We have a Republican controlled Congress that has abdicated their oath to the Constitution and to the people. Instead they pledge their loyalty to their party’s excuse for a president. There is a simple solution, reasonable people must turn out and reshape Congress and their priorities next November.
While we are struggling through the worst leadership crisis in our country’s history, there is one bright spot. Barack Obama and Donald Trump have done more to destroy racial stereotypes and done more damage to the racist cause than anyone can imagine. We might not see changes in the current generation, but for younger people, the truth is obvious.
